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A Market Review and Opinion Report For April 2, 2012

Posted: Tuesday, April 3, 2012 3:42:27 AM
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Member

Joined: 7/13/2011
Posts: 36
Location: Orlando
Despite today’s bull move, crude oil has a decidedly bearish track and the reversal pattern that occurred on the 19th and 20th of March should hold as a top. Bearish positions in crude, rbob and heat are recommended. Natural gas poses an interesting bull play as it is reaching a capitulation point and should see marked upside once a bottom is set. A volatility play with long calls is recommended out in the December contract month.

The stock market is very resilient but is clearly setting up a volatile selloff, likely holding the 1419.75 highs set last Tuesday. Friday’s holiday time employment report could create a catastrophic failure as the market will need to account for this lagging indicator’s reversal of fortune if a negative surprise occurs. The dollar is expected to rally this week and I recommend bearish positions in the euro. The yen needs to break above the recent highs to resume its bullish turnaround efforts. I continue to stand by my forecast that:

The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.

Despite the largest planted acreage of corn since 1944 the reaction to Fridays mega plantings report was nothing short of a bull breakout. This is a golden opportunity for bears to play on supply-side focused traders that should see significant pressure when the next economic bear wave turns traders’ focus to the demand side once again. Folks, this is not a supply-side driven market anymore, minus the infrequent South American drought or plantings report panic rally. When world economic stability and demand is no longer volatile like it is now then sure grains will focus on supply, but until then look to fade any supply-based rally with puts.

Cattle’s market failure could be just the beginning as this market is long overdue for a collapse. Look for another 20% potential downside this year, and expect some bumps in the road at this point to offer entries on bounces. Hogs are joining the freefall and remain avoidable.

Metals remain choppy as euro zone concerns wane, however a big selloff remains likely and puts are recommended in silver and gold, which short copper futures recommended only for those with a significant intestinal fortitude for risk.

Coffee is developing a wide chop near the lows and volatility remains high. The market is a short term coin flip with a long term bearish outlook. Cocoa is a sell here with straight puts recommended. Cotton is avoidable. Sugar and OJ are both shorts with defined risk options highly recommended over futures.

Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. James Mound Marketing Group, the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with James Mound Marketing Group or, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. James Mound Marketing Group, and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been canceled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of James Mound Marketing Group.
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