The DOW closed out the week up the last two sessions.

The CCI is upticking and crossed through the zero line - which is bullish.

The RSI is upticking and is almost at the 50 line - which is also bullish

The Stochastics kissed off the the 20 line where the fast line crossed over the slow line - which is bullish

MACD began upticking yesterday and continued today - which is bullish






The weekly DOW was up. It was the first up week in four weeks.

The CCI has leveled off at -89.77 which is neutral.

The RSI upticked this week, which is bullish.

Stochastics looks like the fast line is about to cross through the slow line, and if that happens that's bullish.

The MACD upticked for the fifth straight week, which is definitely bullish.

Of course the DOW really is waiting for is Geithner's speech on Monday

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Obama recovery plan on track in Senate
Moderate Dems, Republicans forge deal to trim $100B from stimulus bill, passage now likely

Andrew Taylor, Associated Press Writer
Saturday February 7, 2009, 4:52 am EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan is on track to pass the Senate after a handful of moderate Republicans and Democrats forced more than $100 billion in cuts in programs that wouldn't create many jobs right away.

But the group backed away from a confrontation that threatened to kill the legislation altogether after White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel weighed in to urge Democrats make a final round of concessions.

Architects of the compromise included Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Ben Nelson, D-Neb., who represented a broader group of moderates unhappy that so much money went into programs they thought wouldn't create jobs. Eventually, every Republican except Collins and Arlen Specter, R-Pa., left the talks, which finally produced a deal with the White House late Friday afternoon.

While ensuring passage of Obama's plan in the Senate within a few days, the deal sets up difficult negotiations with the House.

Officials put the cost of the bill at $827 billion, including Obama's signature tax cut of up to $1,000 for working couples. Also included is a tax credit of up to $15,000 for homebuyers and smaller breaks for people buying new cars. Much of the new spending would be for victims of the recession, in the form of unemployment compensation, health care and food stamps.

In a key reduction from the bill that reached the Senate floor earlier in the week, $40 billion would be cut from a "fiscal stabilization fund" for state governments, though $14 billion to boost the maximum for college Pell Grants by $400 to $5,250 would be preserved, as would aid to local school districts for the No Child Left Behind law and special education.
A plan to help the unemployed purchase health insurance would be reduced to a 50 percent subsidy instead of two-thirds.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who had sought Friday to cut just $63 billion in spending from the bill, throwing a monkey wrench into the talks, called it an imperfect compromise. He warmly praised it nonetheless.

"But at the end of the day, we are passing a bold and responsible plan that will help our economy get back on its feet, put people to work and put more money in their pockets," Reid said.

Despite a 58-41 majority bolstered by the elections, Democrats need 60 votes to clear a key procedural hurdle on Monday and advance the bill to a final vote.

In addition to Collins and Specter, Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine pledged to vote for the legislation.

The end-stage negotiations played out against a backdrop of yet another dismal jobs report -- 598,000 jobs lost in January and the national unemployment rate rising to 7.6 percent.

At its core, the legislation is designed to ease the worst economic recession in generations, and combines hundreds of billions of dollars in spending to boost consumption by the public sector, along with tax cuts designed to increase consumer spending.

States would get large sums aimed at forestalling cuts in services or tax increases.

Much of the money would go for victims of the recession in the form of food stamps, unemployment compensation and health care. There is money, as well, for construction of highways and bridges.

It's hoped that the combined effort would work its way into the economy and save or create 3 million jobs or so to begin to ease the nation out of the recession by the end of this year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-recovery-plan-on-track-apf-14286351.html

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THE DOW BROKE BELOW 7773.71 which was the intra-day low set on October 10th 2008 - to 7694.38

It has had a nice bounce since but, the only remaining level of support is now 7449.38 which was the intraday low set on November 20th 2008

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The Daily Dow (6 month chart)

The Dow closed at 7850.41 on Friday down 1.04%
Volume declined throughout the week
The Accumulation/Distribution has down ticked – which is bearish
If you look back you can see that it hits a level of resistance around the 1400 level and turns back. We have not been above this level of resistance since October.
The CCI has crossed down through the -100 line, in the oversold area, to -184.5 and is now heading back up to -148.03. If the CCI can cross up through the -100 line, that would be Bullish.

The MACD Histogram has ticked down to zero line and look to tick below the zero line, which is bearish.
The MACD looks to have down tick slightly – which is bearish

The RSI has turned back from the 50 level and seems to have leveled out over the last few days at 42.32 – which is neutral.
The RSI has been meeting resistance at that 50 level and has been turned back twice now in February. If the RSI can break above the 50 level, that would be bullish.



The Weekly Chart of the DOW (Sorry – that I did not include the weekly chart)
The Dow closed at 7850.41 on Friday down 430.18 points or -5.20%.
Volume is down from the previous week
The RSI is trending lower at 34.30 - which is bearish
The CCI has crossed below the -100 line - which is bearish
Full Stochastics is trending lower with the slow line above the fast line – which is bearish
Accum/Dist has ticked sharply downward – which is bearish
We have two levels of support left on the weekly chart, 7773.71 hit on October 10, 2008 and the intra week low of 7694.38 set on Thursday of this week before we test the last level of support of 7506.97 set on 11/20/08.




I thought to include one more daily chart – which is a one-year daily chart.

The two things that really significant, as you can see, is:
1) Volume is a fraction of what it was back in May.
2) The Accumulation/Distribution has flat lined since May.
Which, of course, confirms that bear market that we have been in.

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http://likesmoney.comxa.com/

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162



The Daily Dow 2/27/09
This is another week of very bearish signals for the Dow.
The Dow closed today at 7062.93. It was down 119.15 or -1.66% for the day.
The Dow has closed down 9 out of the last 11 days



As you can see, the Dow had a large sell-off at the end of the day. This was probably a lot of traders closing out positions before the weekend.




Volume was up today significantly.


Looking the at daily chart we see the level of support that the Dow broke through last week – the October low has now become a level of resistance.
That the Dow tested on Monday and was turned away.

The RSI nudged closer to the 30 line from 30.79 last week to 30.26 this week.

The CCI is up from -200 last Friday to -126.69 today. Being up is a positive signal but the troubling thing is that the CCI ticked downward today away from the -100 line-,which is a bearish signal.

Stochastics down ticked. The fast line crossed through slow line - which is also bearish.

Accumulation/distribution ticked downward today. It is in a down-trend coming off a double top back on February 11th.
It's next level of support is from the November low.

The MACD Historgram solidly below zero at -53.085. It has upticked ever so slightly from last week where the Daily MACD was at -55.596 – which is a positive signal.

The MACD is heading lower with the fast line at -298.324 and trending lower, which is a bearish signal.

The Caulkin Money Flow has gone from zero last week to below zero at -0.148. It appears to still be in a downward trend.




Looking at the weekly chart -
This has been another down week for the Dow. The Dow closed at 7062.93, which is down 4.11% for the week.

The Dow’s volume is up over last week, which was short due do the holiday.
The Dow now has closed 9 out of the last 11 weeks.
The lower Bollinger Band last week was set at 7579.12, which we closed below. This week it is set at 7319.70. The Dow for the 2nd straight week closed below the lower Bollinger Band – which is bearish

RSI has ticked below the 30 line to 28.97 which is bearish.
It is now testing a level of support set in November.
It would be nice to see it bounce up off this level and go above 30.

The CCI is at -207.10, which is very oversold. It leveled off this week, which is neutral.

Stochastics is still down ticking, which is bearish.
The fast line has crossed down below the 20 line indicating that it is becoming oversold.
The fast line looks like it has just broke below a level of support established in back in October.


Accumulation Distribution is really dramatic. Last week it was testing a level of support from January and October.
This week it crashed though those levels, as well as one set back in July. It also shattered the one set before that in the end of June.

The MACD fast line has crossed down through the slow line on the weekly chart, which indicates more momentum to the downside.
The MACD Historgram has down-ticked through the zero line to -23.826 which is another bearish sign.

The Calkin Money Flow has down ticked from -0.082 last week to -0.125.

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What's your perdition on dow next week?

Thanks, I think I will wait a week and see how dow goes. I will buy only when dow turn positive.

221

A look at the Daily Chart for the Dow 3/06/09



The Dow closed up today by 32.50 points to close at 6629.94.
That is up 0.49% from yesterday.

The Dow has now closed in positive territory two out of the last three days.
(It is been about 20 trading days since we last were able to say that.)

The RSI appears to be forming a double bottom and looks like it might have up ticked today – I am not ready to say that this is Bullish, but it is a positive development.
There does look to be resistance at about the 37-38 level to get through.
The RSI is in oversold territory at 28.09
I would like to see the RSI up ticking through the 30 line.

The CCI looks like it to has formed a double bottom and has up ticked to -125.06 – again positive- almost bullish. I would like to see the CCI cross up through the -100 line.
The CCI is also in oversold territory.

Stochastics appears to be up ticking. The Fast line has just crossed through the slow line –which is bullish. The fast line is at 9.46 and the slow line is at 6.95.
I would like for Stochastics to cross up through the 20 line to before I would consider some long positions, and then only day trade them.

Accumulation up ticked today – which is Bullish.

The MACD Historgram up ticked ever slow slightly today – still positive.
The MACD is still trending lower, both the fast line and the slow line – which is bearish.

Volume has been down - trending all week. The interesting thing I see is that volume over the last ten – eleven trading days is really is higher than the preceding 26 trading days. I will revisit this again in the weekly look at the Dow.

Today’s candle is a Doji, which represents indecision in the market.
A Doji can also signal a change in direction.


The day started at 6595.16 and spiked up preceding the jobs report. Then the price went down until late in the day where we rallied for a positive gain, which is bullish.
Today’s candlestick we had a lower high and an lower low on our Doji. I would like to see a higher high and a higher low for a positive signal.






A look at the Weekly Chart for the Dow 3/06/09



This is another down week for the Dow.

The Dow closed at 6626.49
We closed for the week down by 435.99 points or -6.17% - Bearish

That makes the fourth straight down week, 8 out of the last nine weeks. - Bearish

If you look at the closing prices for each week (the bottom of a red candlestick and the top of a white candlestick) you will notice that the Dow has closed below the nine week moving average for the last 8 weeks. - Bearish

This is the third straight week the Dow closed below the lower Bollinger Line. - Bearish

The Dow is clearly in oversold territory.

The RSI has down ticked below the 30 line to 26.41 and is down ticking. - Bearish

CCI is at -228.69 and still pointed downward. - Bearish

Stochastics
– Last week just the fast line crossed down through the 20 line.
– This week, both the fast and slow - lines has crossed down through the 20 line. The fast line is at 4.58 and the slow line is at 12.49. – Bearish

Accumulation/Distribution continued it’s steep decline – Bearish.

The MACD Historgram ticked downward to -66.942 – Bearish.

The MACD also down ticked, the fast line to -867.305 and the slow line to -800.363, also Bearish.

I decided to break volume out on it’s own chart this week.

It is interesting to note that the volume on the weekly chart was at a pretty consistent level preceding that third week in September – where the volume essentially doubled.
That week was a down week, following an up week.
Following that spike in volume, we soon had the dramatic selloff in October.
The volume has been significantly down since then – 30% to 40% below until last week.
Now last week and this week we have volume that has topped the third week in September – two weeks in a row. And the volume over the last 2 weeks is up approximately 40% over the previous two-week span.

The psychology of this week’s candlestick - which has a hammer like look to it.
– The Dow opened this week and started heading downward.
– The Bears pushed the Dow to the intra-week low on Friday late in the day at 6469.95
– The Dow tested the 6500 level and found support.
– The Bulls were able to then push the Dow up almost 157 points (2.4%) to finish strong for the day, but still down for the week.

It is a relief to see that we tested the 6500 level and it held. If we had broken that level, the next major level of support looks to be at around the 5400 and another major level around 5100.
Next week could be an interesting week. We are beginning to see some positive (dare I say bullish) signals. The Dow is oversold on the Daily and Weekly Charts.

Volume is significantly up over the last two weeks.

Looking back up at the Daily chart – you will notice that Tuesday’s open and Wednesday’s close was a support level. Now that we have closed lower, that level becomes resistance to the upside – which we tested early today then traveled to the low of the week before closing higher for the day.
That 6755 level will be the first level of resistance that the Dow needs to test in order to rally. There are multiple levels of resistance to the up side after that.
After falling so far so fast, the market is due for a correction.

Be careful if we do get a rally by using stop loss’s.

Happy Trading

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Most of the financial stocks seemed to be rallying right now. Hopefully, this will still be the case when the market closes today.

C is up 38% currently, BAC up 25%, JP Morgan up 18% and FAS is up 38%.